Oil Country Tubular Goods Market Update: The Slow Bleed

June has been a slippery slope for U.S. land rigs, with the number of rigs consistently going down each week. While the changes are small, the effect on the industry is felt everywhere. While these changes can lead to unrest, it’s best to take stock of what you have, what you need, and make decisive choices now, as it doesn’t appear like we will see improvements in the near future. 

Upstream Activity: The Quiet Bleed Continues

At the end of the month, U.S. land rig activity pulled back again, with rig count dropping by 1 to 554. The frac spread count remains subdued in the 180s, reaffirming that spending is tightly controlled and short-cycle projects are delayed or canceled.

For the discerning consumer, this means that the casing and tubing demand is soft. Quotes may stall and megabit bidding may slow as well, so responsiveness and trust will distinguish which partner is prepared and which is caught unawares. Take stock of your needs and lock in the materials you need early, judging your partners accordingly depending on their outlook on the market and response to the recent changes.

A softening in demand means a softening in distributors restocking for later in the year. Don’t let the softening in demand catch you off guard. Hold strong and prepare for Q4/Q1 to avoid creating any holes in your process.  

Steel Market Changes: Continued Tariff Pressure Leads to Price & Timeline Risk

Trump’s 50% steel import tariff has begun to have an increased effect on the market. Nucor raised HRC by $20/t to $890/t, which is the first move in over two months. Steel costs stay around $140/t above January, and lead times have stretched.

If you’re looking into materials, now is the time to lock them in. Prices are continuing the rise with no end in sight and lead times are becoming tighter by the day. If you build a buffer into your procurement schedules, you should be able to stay abreast of major trends or shifts and keep your process moving smoothly. If you want additional guidance, Speartip Tubular is up to date on the latest market intel. We help you stay ahead of market changes and get the best possible deals for your needs in an ever-shifting market. 

The Outlook on Global Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites on June 13 triggered a dramatic 6-7.5% oil price hike, pushing WTI to ~$72-73 bbl and spiking Brent similarly. The global markets reached accordingly, with equities slipping, safe-haven assets rallying, and inflation fears looming on the horizon. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint and partial disruptions could propel oil prices toward $100/bbl.

While pricing has reset back to the mid $60's with a cease fire in place, the outlook is still bullish on oil prices in the next 12-18 months, hence dramatic production decline curves in US shale.

The implications are tough, but manageable for now. If prices hold, we may see a sustained oil source that supports an E&P restart. The volatility of the market also elevates the risks associated with project planning, as procurement, scheduling, and bidding are affected. Plan for the future by committing to essential purchases now while prices maintain their current heading.

Lead the Charge: Your Refined Plan of Action

With uncertain times come a need for plans of certainty. Speartip Tubular has prepared for the industry shifts, which is why we’ve created a plan of action for our clients to help you navigate the troubled waters ahead. 

First, lock in your steel-based inventory immediately. Steel prices and lead times are volatile and will likely continue to be well into the future. It’s important to secure the materials you need for Q3/Q4 projects now to hedge your bets and stay ahead of even more potentially volatile industry shifts. 

Next, build schedule cushioning into your process. Lead times are unreliable in the current market, so a buffer time will make your life much easier, especially for non-standard items. 

Stay agile with the oil market. We’ve seen +6-8% oil spikes in 24 hours, so be ready to pivot on purchasing to match price signals or project timing. Rigidity in uncertain times is only going to cause issues down the line. 

Finally, Speartip Tubular is here to help. Our real-time intelligence helps you by scanning tariff moves, mill pricing, global tensions, and oil volatility so you don’t have to. Don’t navigate troubled waters without a lifeline. We stay as current on these market points as possible to act as a lighthouse amidst the storm. Helping you find the right product at the right pricepoint is half of our services; helping you stay ahead of market changes is just as important. Prepare for the future with the help of Speartip Tubular.

Markets are tightening. Activity’s pulling back. Steel’s spiking. Oil’s rattling. But chaos is where we operate best. We were built for fast pivots and forward pressure, and while the noise gets louder, we stay locked on target. Our customers don’t have to look over their shoulder, we’re already there, watching their six and clearing the path forward.

— Ryan Hunt, CEO