Oil soft. NG rising. Inventory tight. Time to prime the pump.

Speartip Tubing Spotlight: A Tier 1 Priority, Locked and Loaded

At Speartip, OCTG Tubing isn’t just a product—it’s a Tier 1 commitment. For the last 16 months, we’ve been quietly and aggressively refining our supply chain, processing partnerships, and inventory strategy around tubing to become the go-to tubing partner across the Lower 48.

We now provide major completion, workover, and field-stock tubing inventory across every major U.S. basin. Whether it’s Domestic ERW or Import ERW, every joint is processed and end-finished right here in the United States—delivered fast, to spec, and with the flexibility to match your well program.

What We’re Seeing Now:

Operators are rushing to stock tubing before year-end, especially to get ahead of:

• Ad valorem tax exposure
  

• Forecasted 2026 price increases
  

• Q1/Q2 completions already on the calendar
  

There’s no room for speculation here—these are forecast-driven orders, not last-minute budget dumps.

And yes, tubing prices are creeping up for 2026. It’s modest, but real. We’re already hearing it from the mills—attempts at price increases that speculative buyers are still resisting. But as demand ticks up and inventory tightens, the flat spot won’t hold.

“It’s better to have it sourced than pay higher prices for lack of planning or not being able to get it. Remember $14 tubing?”

Yeah. So do we. And we’re making sure you don’t get caught flat-footed in that repeat cycle.

Tubing Strategy — Speartip’s Playbook:

• If it’s Q1/Q2 2026 tubing, lock it now. You won’t find better lead times or more grounded pricing until the rush starts.
  

• ERW and Threaded Tubing is ready to roll from multiple hubs, processed and finished to spec.
  

• We’ve already cleared the bottlenecks: domestic processing is secured, finishers are lined up, and trucks are standing by.

  
  

While the rest of the market is still trying to find its tubing supply strategy—we already built it.

Inflation & Capital Constraints – Still in the Driver’s Seat

• The latest U.S. inflation rate is running around ~2.9% – 3.0% YoY, per publicly available CPI data through September 2025.
  

• That’s “above average” for recent years — and in oil & gas, that keeps replacement costs elevated (steel, collars, finishing, slight softening in freight). Even if headline inflation seems contained, input‑cost inflation for OCTG remains a heavy anchor.
  

• On the capital side, borrowing remains expensive. High rates put downward pressure on large‑scale CAPEX and push operators toward lean spending, minimal expansion, and tight budgeting.
  

Implication: Most operators are planning smaller, cautious budgets for 2026 — fewer speculative wells, more focus on cash flow, DUC completion, and maintenance‑class work.

Rig Count & Activity Snapshot

• According to the latest from Baker Hughes, U.S. active rigs sit at 554 rigs (as of Nov 21, 2025), up a bit from prior weeks but still ~5 – 6% below last year.
  

• Oil‑rig count is ~419, gas rigs remain ~125–130.
  

• But rig numbers remain well off pre‑2022 peaks, and the overall drill‑count remains muted, especially for high‑cost, long‑cycle shale drilling.
  

Takeaway: Modest rigs gains don’t signal a comeback — they reflect maintenance, infill, and near‑term cashflow strategies. Demand for new tonnage remains soft.

Oil & Gas Demand Outlook — Mixed Signals

• Global oil demand forecasts remain soft. Excess capacity abroad (OPEC+, offshore) and high inventories suggest oil price upside is capped in the near term.
  

• On the gas front, winter demand + LNG export growth look supportive. As cold weather sets in and LNG exports rise, natural gas prices could see upward pressure over the next 6–12 months — especially with constrained new well activity in U.S. shale.
  

What it means: Oil may float in the $50–$65 band near term. Natural gas could be the wild‑card — upside remains if winter demand and export demand materialize.

Market Behavior: Capital Discipline & Inventory Freeze

• Many publicly‑held E&P and midstream operators continue to push capital discipline as their guiding principle: minimal new wells, focus on DUCs, optimize existing infrastructure, and preserve cash.
  

• Meanwhile, tubular distributors are shutting off new buys unless tied to committed orders or long‑term programs. Why? Two main reasons: demand softness and looming 2.5% ad valorem tax for inventory in Harris County, TX at year-end.
  

Implication: Expect tight availability, especially for spec or odd‑size pipe. If you wait until Q1 to source, inventory will likely be constrained — and prices could jump.

Steel & Input Costs: Costs Holding, Pressure Building

• Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) and related steel inputs remain elevated, which keeps baseline OCTG replacement cost high. Lead times for collars, threading, heat‑treating and finishing services remain extended across the board.
  

• Right now, mills are pushing costs. Speculative buyers — dealers and distributors — are pushing back. The result: flat OCTG pricing, but with narrow margins for suppliers. If demand rebuilds, pricing could re‑inflate fast.

Pricing remains “steady” — but only because demand is muted. If activity reignites, we could be at the bottom of the cycle.

Policy & Macro: Tariff/TAX Exposure + Political Headwinds

• Tariffs and Section 232 remain in effect — landed inventory remains exposed. No relief in sight. Mills continue to price as though duty burden remains imminent.
  

• On the political front, recent rhetoric from federal energy‑policy wings (including public statements from industry advocates like Chris Wright) is bullish on U.S. energy production and infrastructure build-out. But optimism hasn’t translated to increased rig activity — yet.
  

• Combined with the year-end Harris County inventory tax, the result: distributors will run down yards; Q4/Q1 restocking will be minimal at best.

Speartip Status: While Others Wait — We Move

November was our biggest month yet. While many in the industry are freezing up, waiting on macro relief — Speartip pushed ahead. We locked deals. We moved inventory. We saw opportunity where others saw risk.

This gives us a strategic wedge for Q1 2026.

Speartip Action Plan — What We Do Next

1. Lock down inventory now — book what you need for Q1/Q2 while prices and availability remain in flux.
   

2. Pre‑book services — threading, collars, heat‑treating. Mills are under pressure; lead‑times may get worse before they get better.
   

3. Operate under two‑tier pricing assumptions — landed inventory vs future imports. Your quotes need to account for risk spreads.
   

4. Stay lean on drilling commitments — unless oil or gas prices show sustained strength, focus on completions, maintenance, and value — not expansion.
   

5. Use Speartip as your market sentry — we’ll keep tracking inflation, rig counts, tariffs, production forecasts, and inventory trends so you stay ahead.

Final Word

Oil might flirt with $50–$65 over the next 12 months. Natural gas could spring higher if winter demand and exports hold firm. But in OCTG? The next month’s demand is up to you.

If you wait for the “market to turn,” you’re already late. Speartip doesn’t wait. We plan. We act. We deliver.

We’ve got your six — now let’s move.

—Ryan Hunt Founder & CEO, Speartip Tubular "We move as one. And we move fast."